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  • #16
    The period leading to the Iranian presidential elections is always exciting, and this time it will be no different.

    According to a recent article in the Tehran based Baztab online, members of a parallel intelligence agency inside Iran have been arrested after being caught spying on Tehran Mayor and presidential candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The arrested group was collecting information about Ghalibaf's meetings and electioneering gatherings.

    In an interesting twist to the story, the head of the counter intelligence agency that caught the group was later removed because he supplied the information to the press.

    The report does not mention who were the people spying on Ghalibaf. However one can assume that the person who has the most to lose from Ghalibaf's participation in the elections is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He may feel safe about Ayatollah Khatami's participation, because he could assume that Ayatollah Khamenei, who is not usually in favor of reformists, may not allow him to win.

    However Ghalibaf who is from within the conservative movement may pose a bigger danger. Unlike Ahmadinejad, he was a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guards, and fought in the war for the entire eight years. This is in contrast to Ahmadinejad's one and half years on the front lines.

    Furthermore, Ghalibaf is seen as more moderating force in terms of economic and foreign policy. He has openly spoken out against excessive spending and populist policies of the current government, while calling for a more moderate foreign policy and investment from abroad. This is music to the ears of many conservative supporters, and those who want to support Khatami, but believe that despite his good intentions, Khamenei will never let him win.

    There are two other factors which boost Ghalibaf's chances.

    One is Ali Larijani's decision not to participate. His participation may have led to cannibalization of votes between the two.

    The other is election of Barack Obama. His calls for unconditional dialogue have been heard in Tehran. So have recommendations for him not to meet with Ahmadinejad.

    It is very possible that the Supreme Leader may decide that Ahmadinejad's catastrophic economic performance and his foreign policy stance may have cost Iran too much. That his removal may be worth the price for the sake of internal stability, and the chance to reap the benefits of dialogue with the US.

    Between all the candidates, Ghalibaf would be the best face saving choice. His election as a conservative candidate would allow Khamenei to choose a middle course which would satisfy conservatives at home and those wanting to approach a more moderate Iran. This is one possibility which should not be ignored.

    Meir Javedanfar is a Middle East Analyst at Tel Aviv-based MEEPAS, www.meepas.com

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    • #17
      حمايت فلاحيان از قاليباف


      علي فلاحيان پيش بيني کرد؛ باتوجه به شخصيت غيرجناحي ميرحسين موسوي در صورتي که اوضاع همين طور پيش برود اين احتمال نيز وجود دارد که بخشي از اصولگرايان از وي حمايت کنند. به گزارش ايلنا نماينده استان خوزستان در مجلس خبرگان رهبري در حاشيه اختتاميه اجلاس اين مجلس در پاسخ به سوالي درخصوص حمايت اصولگرايان مترقي از قاليباف گفت؛ قاليباف يکي از گزينه هاي خوب انتخابات است. اگر همين افرادي که در صحنه هستند، باشند من قبلاً هم پيش بيني کرده ام که آنقدر اين معادلات به هم مي خورد که شانس قاليباف خيلي بيشتر مي شود.

      وي همچنين درباره شرايط اصلاح طلبان افزود؛ فکر نکنم خاتمي کنار بکشد، براي چه بايد اين کار را انجام دهد؟ گفته اند يکي از دو گزينه خاتمي يا ميرحسين مي آيند، اگر به اين عهد استوار باشند، چند روز مانده به انتخابات اگر نتيجه افکارسنجي ها اين باشد که يک نفر راي بيشتري دارد دو نفر ديگر به نفع او کنار بروند. اينکه اين معاهده چقدر جدي و عملي باشد بايد ببينيم چه مي شود چرا که آن زمان هم افکارسنجي ها کمي به هم مي ريزد و هم هر کس ادعا مي کند من موج را ايجاد کردم چنين کاري در جو آن موقع خيلي سخت است ولي اگر اين کار را انجام دهند، بهتر است.



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      • #18
        http://fardanews.com/fa/pages/?cid=78081



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        • #19
          Sometimes news takes time to get out of Iran - particularly when it comes to internal strife in the upper political echelons. But eventually, major clashes leak out. This week the news emerged that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the mayor of Tehran and Ahmadinejad's main rival in the Osulgarayn (Principalist) movement, resigned from his post just before the end of the previous Persian calendar year - approximately March 18 or 19.

          A number of days later, he was reinstated to his job after his resignation was rejected by senior officials, most likely the supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei.

          The news was first published in the Tehran-based Jahan News, which is affiliated with Iran's Ministry of Information and Security, known by its Farsi acronym as VAVAK.

          According to the report, the main reason for Ghalibaf's resignation was the termination of supply of cement, primary materials, and tools required by the Tehran municipality for its subway project for the city of Tehran. This follows another controversial decision by the government to cut subsidized gasoline provided to the municipality's cars. This decision forced the organization to purchase gas at market prices - six or seven times the price. These decisions first caused a number of senior municipality managers to resign, followed by the mayor himself.

          The very fact that he took a step as extreme as resigning from his post is an indication of the intensity of the rivalry between him and Ahmadinejad. As mayor of Tehran, Ghalibaf depends on the national government, and Ministry of Interior in particular, to supply him with material and subsidized goods for city projects. He can't just simply go out and buy them himself.

          According to government regulations, the Ministry of Interior must approve every purchase and, in many cases, supply the goods as well as the funds. As president, Ahmadinejad wields power over the Ministry of Interior and other ministries that deal with Tehran Municipality. With such power, he can make life as easy and as difficult for Ghalibaf as he chooses.
          Since 2005, Ahmadinejad has decided to do the latter.

          Numerous projects have been delayed. A notable one was the supply of buses to the municipality for its Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) scheme, which Ghalibaf has been championing as a solution to Tehran's traffic problems since late 2005. This notwithstanding the $600 million of approved funds, which the government refused to release to the municipality. Recently, Ghalibaf hit back, removing posters celebrating the 100th anniversary of the country's oil industry, which showed Ahmadinejad standing in front of a refinery.

          Ahmadinejad's perception of Ghalibaf as a threat is quite accurate. There are many within the Iranian conservative movement who are concerned about the damage Ahmadinejad and his disastrous economic policies have caused their movement. They see Ghalibaf and his support for more moderate foreign and economic policies as hope for redemption.
          There is also Ghalibaf's military record as well, far more distinguished than that of Ahmadinejad. Ghalibaf was a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guards, and unlike Ahmadinejad, he has lost family (his brother) in war.

          The resignation of Khatami also seems to have boosted Ghalibaf's position. Some of Khatami's supporters now back Mousavi (Khatami's replacement). According to Shafaf News from Tehran, more than half of Khatami's supporters now back Ghalibaf. One of the main reasons is thought to be because they see Ghalibaf as a good prospect, due to his good relations with the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei himself.

          Judging by Khatami's resignation and Ghalibaf's temporary resignation, the level of discord within the Iranian government is reaching a new level, and Ayatollah Khamenei knows this. This is why Khatami was most probably advised not to run: because the animosity which he creates between the conservatives would have created more division and infighting.
          Ghalibaf's resignation would have been another embarrassing blow, as he could have become the second senior official (after Larijani) to resign because of Ahmadinejad - hence the successful pressure on him to reverse his decision.

          These developments show that President Obama's policy of refusing to negotiate with Iran until after the presidential elections is on target. Once the elections are over and the dust settles, Washington will be in a much better position to deal with Tehran. Waiting until then will not be an easy decision, especially economically. According to a recent study by the CATO Institute, oil prices are set to rise again, which could force Americans to pay $3 or $4 for their gasoline at the pump.
          This will provide Iran's political hierarchy with more leverage at the negotiations.

          However, negotiating before the elections could bolster Ahmadinejad and weaken the people of Iran, as well as politicians such as Ghalibaf who oppose the president. This must be avoided.

          Hopefully, the political divisions and the internal enemies Ahmadinejad has created may do a much better job of bringing him down than the U.S. or Israel ever could.



          Comment


          • #20
            با جمع بندی شرایط موجود فعلا داوطلب دهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری نیستم.

            قالیباف شهردارتهران به خبرگزاری مهر گفت:بنده هیچگاه داوطلب مقام و مسئولیت نبوده ام و همواره بر اساس وظیفه عمل کرده ام. کارنامه عملکردم نیز در پیشگاه ملت شریف ایران روشن است. لذا اگر چه برای اداره کشور و تحقق جامعه ارزشی و برخوردار یا به عبارتی زندگی برازنده ایرانیان مدل طراحی شده و برنامه مدون دارم ، اما حضورم در نهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری بر تحلیل و تکلیفی استوار بود که در موقعیت فعلی وجود ندارد. بنابر این با جمع بندی شرایط موجود فعلا داوطلب دهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری نیستم.

            من می خواهم یکبار دیگر مانند دوران دفاع مقدس و به یاد دوستان و همرزمان شهیدی نظیر شهید باکری ، شهید خرازی ، شهید کاوه و شهید کاظمی ثابت کنم که فرزندان امام و انقلاب شیفته خدمتند نه تشنه قدرت. و تنها موقعی زیر بار سنگین مسئولیت می روند که راه دیگری برای ادای دین خود نداشته باشند.

            فقط امیدوارم کسانی که در برابر تلاش شهرداری تهران برای خدمت بیشتر و بهتر به شهروندان به اتهام انتخاباتی بودن مقاومت می کردند ، پاسخ خود را گرفته باشند.




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            • #21

              روز 13 فروردين خبر جدید و جالب توجهی در ادامه شایعات پیرامون استعفای قالیباف از شهرداری تهران و نیز پایان دوره عزت الله ضرغامی
              در صداوسیما شنیده شد.

              از منابع نزدیک به طیف اصولگرایان اصلاح طلب یا همان اطرافیان محمدباقر قالیباف این مطلب به بیرون درز کرد که وی قید حضور در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری را می زند تا ریاست سازمان صداوسیما را در اختیار بگیرد.

              شهردار تهران در گفتگویی که با خبرگزاری مهر گفت: بنده هیچ گاه داوطلب مقام و مسئولیت نبوده ام و همواره بر اساس وظیفه عمل کرده ام. کارنامه عملکردم نیز در پیشگاه ملت شریف ایران روشن است. لذا اگر چه برای اداره کشور و تحقق جامعه ارزشی و برخوردار یا به عبارتی زندگی برازنده ایرانیان مدل طراحی شده و برنامه مدون دارم ، اما حضورم در نهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری بر تحلیل و تکلیفی استوار بود که در موقعیت فعلی وجود ندارد. بنابر این با جمع بندی شرایط موجود فعلا داوطلب دهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری نیستم.

              پیشتر از جایگزینی غلامعلی حدادعادل به جای عزت الله ضرغامی حرف هایی به گوش رسیده بود اما نیامدن قالیباف به صحنه انتخابات و نیز احتمال قریب الوقوع ترک ساختمان بهشت توسط او، گمانه تازه را تقویت کرده است.

              از سوي ديگر رفتن عزت الله ضرغامي از صداوسيما نيز روز به روز جدي تر مي شود. از آنجا كه خرداد امسال دوران مدیریت پنج ساله وي به پايان مي رسد و ادامه كارش منوط به تمدید آن از سوی مقام معظم رهبری است ، انتصاب فردي جديد براي حضور در سازمان نيز بيش از تمديد دوره مديريت ضرغامي به گوش مي رسد. سايت خبر آنلاين نيز در تحليلي به اين گمانه ها اشاره كرده و حتي علي اكبر ولايتي را نيز يكي از گزينه هاي احتمالي اين سمت نام برده است.

              قالیباف در حالی که به گفته مرتضی طلایی عضو شورای شهر و از نزدیکان قالیباف ، برنامه آماده ای برای اداره کشور داشت ، و هم چنین بنابر خبرها آمادگی فعال کردن ستادهایش را داشت ، اعلام کرد که نامزد نخواهد شد . چنین تصمیمی جدی بودن گزینه قالیباف را برای صدا و سیما تایید می کند.

              به هر حال بد نیست از همین حالا و با توجه به سابقه عملکرد قالیباف در شهرداری تهران، شمه هایی از شیوه مدیریتي، چيدن مدیران تازه و ... را از سوی وی در ذهن ترسیم کنیم و پیش بینی هایی از آینده ای که در آن محمدباقر قالیباف بر صندلی ساختمان شیشه ای تکیه زده باشد نزد خود داشته باشیم.




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              • #22
                http://www****annegah.com/Video.aspx?id=1663

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